Використання сценарного підходу при формуванні та реалізації державної політики в сфері протидії злочинності

Abstract

Досліджено загальні переваги використання сценарного методу прогнозування у дослідженні майбутнього стану злочинності, що впливає на формування та реалізацію державної політики в сфері протидії злочинності. Зроблено акцент на формування трьох основних сценаріїв побудови політики в сфері протидії злочинності залежно від стану злочинності: оптимістичний, песимістичний та реалістичний.The scientific article examines the general advantages of using the scenario method of forecasting in the research of the future condition of crime, which affects the formation and implementation of state policy in the area of counteraction crime. The use of this approach is aimed to the formation of a different set of scenarios for the future development of the research object, depending on the ambiguity and uncertainty of the influence of the complex of internal and external factors. It is noted that the use of the scenario method has not yet found wide use in criminological research. At the same time, this method consists in the researching of the future development of processes with the subsequent identification of potential possibilities and consequences. In the future, this has its prospects in the researching of the status of crime in the state and the formation of strategic documents in the sphere of counteraction crime for the medium and long term. It is noted that the scenario forecasting method helps to combine data obtained, as a result of using others formalized and intuitive forecasting methods. The attention is focused on the fact that the multidimensional of the counteraction crime system in Ukraine depends on the influence of a large array of determining factors, which makes it necessary to take into account in the process of building a scenario forecast significant amounts of information about the forecast estimates of the political, socio-economic, demographic situation and condition of national security also. Attention is focused on constructing of three main scenarios for the formation of a policy in the sphere of counteraction crime depending on the condition of crime: optimistic, pessimistic and realistic. According to the results of the research, the author proposed the definition of a criminological (predictive) scenario for the development of the condition of crime. In perspective, further researches will be planed a detailed study of the methods and algorithms for constructing criminological (predictive) scenarios of the development condition of crime, the system of counteraction against it, as well as the development of possible strategic and program documents based on them.Исследованы общие преимущества использования сценарного метода прогнозирования при исследовании будущего состояния преступности, что влияет на формирование и реализацию государственной политики в сфере противодействия преступности. Сделан акцент на формирование трех основных сценариев построения политики в сфере противодействия преступности в зависимости от состояния преступности: оптимистический, пессимистический и реалистический.