Функціональний зміст прогнозування у сфері протидії злочинності

Abstract

Стаття присвячена аналізу наукових засад визначення функціонального змісту прогнозування у сфері протидії злочинності, зокрема, таких його різновидів, як кримінально-правове та кримінологічне прогнозування. Зроблено висновок про можливість поширення відповідних висновків і на прогнозування індивідуальної злочинної поведінки.

The article is devoted to the analysis of scientific principles in determining the functional content of prediction in the field of crime combating. Designated regularities by the result of studying appropriate processes and procedures are the basis for predicting the future state of processes and phenomena that makes possible to use criminological information within practical activities of people. The latter requires prediction of certain changes, evaluation, if possible, accurate and balanced, the future state of a particular object, determination the future, if necessary, modification, correction through the deliberate affect. The importance of the development of this aspect of the preventive activities is in the fact that it is one of the areas to optimize corresponding procedures, improving the functioning of certain processes. Indeed, prediction is an integral part of management in the field of crime combating. Correlation of such kinds of forecasting in the field of crime combating as criminal and legal, criminological forecasting is considered. In particular, criminological forecasting based in the scientific prediction of changes of crime’s tendencies and regularities in the future, provides information for the legislator that allows to make timely corresponding adjustments in the criminal law. Criminological forecasts of the state, structure, dynamic of crime are the initial impulse to study all other prerequisites for the possible decriminalization of certain offences or, on the contrary, intended strengthening of their penalization. Criminological forecasting under these circumstances is the initial link, the primary source of criminal and legal forecasting: perspectives of criminal law development can be correctly determined only on the basis of information obtained as a result of criminological prediction. Besides, the specifics of predicting individual criminal behavior are researched. The algorithm of the specified forecasting is considered. It is established that the identified properties, qualities, factors must be the basis for the establishment of appropriate criminal’s psychogram – initial model of the optimal set of negative, neutral or socially important qualities necessary for the alleged commission of a specific crime under certain conditions. The next step is to determine the complex criteria of the correspondence of personal qualities of certain individuals to the features of criminal situation of the specific type. Comparison in the course of this study of individual characteristics with reference will make possible to express quite reasonable forecast concerning “social reliability” of a person, who is studied.

Статья посвящена анализу научных основ определения функционального содержания прогнозирования в сфере противодействия преступности, в частности, таких его разновидностей, как уголовно-правовое и криминологическое прогнозирование. Сделан вывод о возможности распространения соответствующих выводов и на прогнозирование индивидуального преступного поведения.